Forecast of anthropogenic risks of pollution of geological environment with petroleum products

The main problems of modeling of distribution of petroleum products at hazardous pollution and o forecast of environmental risks of geological environment pollution are considered. The main mistakes of modeling of distribution of hydrocarbon pollutions are analyzed. The modern approaches to estimation of migration ability and perspectives of transformation of oil and petroleum products at the contact with environment components are presented.
Materials and methods
An extensive contemporary domestic and foreign literature on hydrogeological modeling of the behavior of oil pollution in the environment is analyzed. The own experience and results of previous studies of the authors is used.
Results
The main problems occurring at modeling for the forecasting of the behavior of petroleum pollution are identified, which are consequently determine the accuracy of risk estimations
Сonclusions
Modern forecasting models are not very accurate, and taken to simplify significantly distort the results. It is necessary to develop new models for the prediction of anthropogenic risks for the geological environment and the identification of environmental and socio-economic damages.