DOI: 10.24412/2076-6785-2021-1-62-66
Abstract
The strength reliability of linear sections of main pipelines is evaluated based on indicators that include the probability of failure and the safety coefficient. Probabilistic models used for calculating these indicators contain a number of parameters that are taken as random variables when calculating them. Patterns of distribution and dispersion limits of such parameters have a significant impact on the results of calculating reliability indicators. One of the parameters that is included in probabilistic models as a deterministic value, but actually has a random nature, is the thickness of the pipe wall. Based on the examples of assessing the strength reliability of sections of the main oil pipeline, the necessity of taking this parameter into account in the calculation models as a random variable is justified.
Material and methods
Measurements of the actual values of the pipe wall thickness were performed using an ultrasonic thickness gauge of the DM2 model manufactured by “Kräutkramer GmbH & CO” (Germany), processing of the measurement results and calculation of the failure probability values were performed based on the methods of nonparametric statistics and reliability theory.
Keywords
main oil pipeline, linear part, reliability, probability of failure, risk level
